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>>>>Mission Section with Spacecraft and Mission Information<<<<
UPDATES
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FINAL REPORT - January 23, 2012
Phobos-Grunt: Re-Entry Window January 15, 2012 - 17:39 to 18:08 UTC Possible Entry Zone: Pacific Ocean; South America (Chile, Argentina, Brazil); Atlantic Ocean *****USSTRATCOM Entry Data***** Decay: January 15, 2012 - 17:46 UTC +/-1 Minute Decay Location: ~273°E 46°S (Pacific Ocean) |
>>>Re-Entry Blog<<<
Click to view large Version
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Final Entry Map
USSTRATCOM Decay Location: Red; Earliest/Latest Decay Points: Yellow
Image: Orbitron
Final Data
Click to view large Version
The Re-Entry Process
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Phobos-Grunt is a fairly large re-entering Object. With a mass of 13,500 Kilograms, its mass is more than double that of NASA’s UARS Satellite that re-entered in September. It is also bigger than the German ROSAT that plunged back to Earth in October. Most of its mass is made up of toxic and explosive propellants. A total of about 11,150 Kilograms of propellants were inside the vehicle’s tanks at liftoff. Phobos-Grunt uses Hydrazine and Dinitrogen Tetroxide as propellants. PG has aluminum tanks that are spherical in shape. Once the Spacecraft hits the dense atmosphere, friction will cause it to heat up and it is expected that the Aluminum Tanks will not withstand the Re-Entry Environment so that all propellants inside those tanks would burn up and not reach the surface. Should the Propellants be frozen inside the tanks after the vehicle was exposed to the space environment for several months, chances are higher that some of the Entry heat could be absorbed by the frozen fuel.
One component that will survive re-entry and impact the ground is the Entry capsule that was specially designed to bring soil from Phobos back to Earth. Also inside the 7.5-Kilogram Capsule are bacteria, fungi and other microorganisms. All organisms that are part of the LIFE Experiment are not harmful to humans. It is expected that the entry module will make it to Earth’s surface as intended after being separated from the vehicle during the destructive entry process. |
Image: Lavochkin Association
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No other
items that will likely survive Re-Entry have been noted, however it is
known that about 20% to 40% of a re-entering satellite’s components
reach Earth. Taking under consideration that Russian Spacecraft are
usually built in a more robust fashion than other vehicles - for example US Satellites, the
possibility of components other than the re-entry module surviving the
Environment during amtospheric entry increases.
Also taking into account that all Propellants explode upon Re-Entry, around 475 to 950 Kilograms of Phobos-Grunt Debris could reach the ground.
Phobos-Grunt is carrying a small amount of radioactive Cobalt-57 Isotopes as part of a Spectrometer Instrument that was supposed to analyze samples on Phobos. Experts do not expect that any radiation could survive Re-Entry and cause problems on Earth. Russian Officials have admitted that 20 to 30 individual pieces weighing no more than 200 Kilograms are expected to reach the ground.
The big unknown is the Chinese Yinghuo 1 Spacecraft that hoped to hitch a ride to Mars on-board Phobos-Grunt. China has not released detailed technical information on any toxic or dangerous satellite components. More information on Yinghuo 1 can be found here.
Estimating the Location of Orbital Decay is impossible until several orbits prior to Entry. Predictions will become more fine-tuned over the final two hours of the spacecraft’s life. Phobos-Grunt is orbiting Earth with an Inclination of 51.4 degrees, so all areas 51 degrees north and south of the equator are possbile entry zones. For reference, the International Space Station’s orbit is inclined 51.6 degrees.
Also taking into account that all Propellants explode upon Re-Entry, around 475 to 950 Kilograms of Phobos-Grunt Debris could reach the ground.
Phobos-Grunt is carrying a small amount of radioactive Cobalt-57 Isotopes as part of a Spectrometer Instrument that was supposed to analyze samples on Phobos. Experts do not expect that any radiation could survive Re-Entry and cause problems on Earth. Russian Officials have admitted that 20 to 30 individual pieces weighing no more than 200 Kilograms are expected to reach the ground.
The big unknown is the Chinese Yinghuo 1 Spacecraft that hoped to hitch a ride to Mars on-board Phobos-Grunt. China has not released detailed technical information on any toxic or dangerous satellite components. More information on Yinghuo 1 can be found here.
Estimating the Location of Orbital Decay is impossible until several orbits prior to Entry. Predictions will become more fine-tuned over the final two hours of the spacecraft’s life. Phobos-Grunt is orbiting Earth with an Inclination of 51.4 degrees, so all areas 51 degrees north and south of the equator are possbile entry zones. For reference, the International Space Station’s orbit is inclined 51.6 degrees.
Photo: Orbitron
Phobos-Grunt Sample Ground Tracks
Background
The failed
Russian Phobos-Sample Return Mission is facing its end when the Phobos-Grunt
Spacecraft re-enters the Earth’s Atmosphere.
Phobos-Grunt launched on November 18, 2011 aboard a Zenit 2SB Rocket. Ascent of the Launch Vehicle was nominal and the spacecraft was injected in its desired Low Earth Parking Orbit. At a point 126 Minutes into the Mission, the Vehicle’s Propulsion Module was supposed to perform an Engine Burn to boost the Probe’s Orbit to a highly elliptical orbit before another burn would have taken it on its Trajectory to Mars and Phobos. Neither of the Burns were executed and PG was trapped in Earth Orbit. In addition to that, contact with the Spacecraft was lost after just one successful communication pass via the Baikonur Tracking Station one orbit after launch. ESA had then joined Russian Mission Controllers in a quest to re-establish vehicle communications via different Tracking Stations in Australia, Asia and Europe. On November 23, 2011, some vehicle telemetry was obtained by the Perth Station and Baikonur made contact on November 24. However, all data that was downlinked from the vehicle was useless and communications ceased after these Communication Passes. Without telemetry, the failure that caused the engines not to fire after launch could not be identified and the mission’s final destination was Low Earth Orbit instead of a roundtrip to Phobos.
Phobos-Grunt launched on November 18, 2011 aboard a Zenit 2SB Rocket. Ascent of the Launch Vehicle was nominal and the spacecraft was injected in its desired Low Earth Parking Orbit. At a point 126 Minutes into the Mission, the Vehicle’s Propulsion Module was supposed to perform an Engine Burn to boost the Probe’s Orbit to a highly elliptical orbit before another burn would have taken it on its Trajectory to Mars and Phobos. Neither of the Burns were executed and PG was trapped in Earth Orbit. In addition to that, contact with the Spacecraft was lost after just one successful communication pass via the Baikonur Tracking Station one orbit after launch. ESA had then joined Russian Mission Controllers in a quest to re-establish vehicle communications via different Tracking Stations in Australia, Asia and Europe. On November 23, 2011, some vehicle telemetry was obtained by the Perth Station and Baikonur made contact on November 24. However, all data that was downlinked from the vehicle was useless and communications ceased after these Communication Passes. Without telemetry, the failure that caused the engines not to fire after launch could not be identified and the mission’s final destination was Low Earth Orbit instead of a roundtrip to Phobos.
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Phobos-Grunt
has been on a slow path to re-entry since being delivered to its Parking Orbit.
Orbits that low in altitude can not be maintained for long without any engine
firings since the upper portions of the Atmosphere cause drag on the vehicle
and eventually make it plunge back into the dense atmpsphere for
destructive re-entry. The initial orbit of PG was 349 by 207 kilometers. After
orbital insertion, PG’s altitude started to decrease as expected until a rather
strange and unexplained phenomenon started on or around November 14 and showed the
perigee of PG’s Orbit increasing while apogee still dropped at a steady level.
To date, there is no confirmed explanation of any cause. Likely, the vehicle
was venting gas due to a system failure. However it could have been active
attitude control firings by the spacecraft’s engines. This phenomenon stopped
on November 21, 2011 and since then the vehicle has been dropping as expected.
On November 27 to 29, one object separated from Phobos-Grunt. Another Object followed on November 30. Both Objects drifted away from PG as opposed to an explosive separation. The first Object – designated ‘Object-G’ – was small in size. Estimations range between 0.3 to 0.5 Kilograms with a diameter of about 10 Centimeters. The nature of Object-H is unknown, but its orbital behavior suggests similar properties. Both items lost their orbital altitude rapidly and both have already re-entered the Atmosphere. Object G suffered orbital decay on November 29. On December 2, Object H plunged back to Earth. Exact Re-Entry times and locations have not been determined exactly as both objects were farily small in size and did not pose any threat. |
Photo: Roscosmos (www.federalspace.ru)
A full Chronology of the Phobos-Grunt Mission along
with all Mission Updates can be found here.
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Phobos-Grunt in Orbit
Photo: Ralf Vandebergh
Previous Updates
Pre-Entry Maps
Roscosmos: Official Re-Entry Prediction 
Map: Roscosmos (www.federalspace.ru)
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Final Data
Click to view large Version
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Heavens-Above.com
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January 15, 2012 - 18:45 UTC:
***PHOBOS-GRUNT HAS RE-ENTERED***
Entry Time: ~17:45 UTC
Entry Location: Pacific Ocean
Entry Map below
***PHOBOS-GRUNT HAS RE-ENTERED***
Entry Time: ~17:45 UTC
Entry Location: Pacific Ocean
Entry Map below
January 15, 2012 - 17:32 UTC:
*****Re-Entry Window Open*****
Current Orbit: 119x129km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.0 min
Argument of Perigee: 342°
Orbits per Day: 16.57
Re-Entry Predictions:
***USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:59 to 17:47 UTC***
Aerospace C.: January 15, 2012 - 17:52 UTC +/- 19 Minutes
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 17:50 to 18:34 UTC
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:33 UTC +/- 20 Minutes
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 18:02 UTC +/- 24 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace C.: January 15, 2012 - 17:52 UTC +/- 19 Minutes
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; Africa; Europe; Atlantic
Increased Risk: Pacific Ocean; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.63163414 .09995194 13023-4 40450-4 0 3188
2 37872 051.4132 350.4733 0010619 342.2936 019.1120 16.56510899 10955
*****Re-Entry Window Open*****
Current Orbit: 119x129km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.0 min
Argument of Perigee: 342°
Orbits per Day: 16.57
Re-Entry Predictions:
***USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:59 to 17:47 UTC***
Aerospace C.: January 15, 2012 - 17:52 UTC +/- 19 Minutes
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 17:50 to 18:34 UTC
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:33 UTC +/- 20 Minutes
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 18:02 UTC +/- 24 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace C.: January 15, 2012 - 17:52 UTC +/- 19 Minutes
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; Africa; Europe; Atlantic
Increased Risk: Pacific Ocean; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.63163414 .09995194 13023-4 40450-4 0 3188
2 37872 051.4132 350.4733 0010619 342.2936 019.1120 16.56510899 10955
January 15, 2012 - 16:11 UTC:
*****Re-Entry Window Open*****
Current Orbit: 121x138km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.1 min
Argument of Perigee: 307.3°
Orbits per Day: 16.51
Mean Altitude Loss: 1.1kph
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 18:03 UTC +/- 43 Minutes
USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:11 to 18:35 UTC
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 18:02 UTC +/- 24 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 19:21 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:21 +/-51 Minutes
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; South & East Africa
Increased Risk: Pacific & Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
*****Re-Entry Window Open*****
Current Orbit: 121x138km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.1 min
Argument of Perigee: 307.3°
Orbits per Day: 16.51
Mean Altitude Loss: 1.1kph
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 18:03 UTC +/- 43 Minutes
USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:11 to 18:35 UTC
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 18:02 UTC +/- 24 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 19:21 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:21 +/-51 Minutes
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; South & East Africa
Increased Risk: Pacific & Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
January 15, 2012 - 13:30 UTC:
Current Orbit: 123x140km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.2 min
Argument of Perigee: 307.3°
Orbits per Day: 16.51
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:54 UTC +/- 60 Minutes
USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:11 to 18:35 UTC
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 18:02 UTC +/- 24 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 19:21 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:53 UTC +/- 130 Minutes
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; South & East Africa
Increased Risk: Pacific & Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
Current Orbit: 123x140km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.2 min
Argument of Perigee: 307.3°
Orbits per Day: 16.51
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:54 UTC +/- 60 Minutes
USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:11 to 18:35 UTC
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 18:02 UTC +/- 24 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 19:21 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:53 UTC +/- 130 Minutes
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; South & East Africa
Increased Risk: Pacific & Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
January 15, 2012 - 12:00 UTC:
Current Orbit: 125x142km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.2 min
Argument of Perigee: 307.3°
Orbits per Day: 16.51
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:54 UTC +/- 60 Minutes
USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:11 to 18:35 UTC
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:49 UTC +/- 45 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 19:21 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:53 UTC +/- 130 Minutes
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; South & East Africa
Increased Risk: Pacific & Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
Current Orbit: 125x142km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.2 min
Argument of Perigee: 307.3°
Orbits per Day: 16.51
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:54 UTC +/- 60 Minutes
USSTRATCOM: January 15, 2012 - 16:11 to 18:35 UTC
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:49 UTC +/- 45 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:37 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:07 +/- 129 Minutes
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 19:21 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:53 UTC +/- 130 Minutes
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; South & East Africa
Increased Risk: Pacific & Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
January 15, 2012 - 11:00 UTC:
Current Orbit: 127x145km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.2 min
Argument of Perigee: 308.8°
Orbits per Day: 16.50
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:54 UTC +/- 01 Hour
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:49 UTC +/- 45 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:44 UTC +/- 02.4 Hours
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:39 +/- 03.1 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 22:16 UTC +/- 09 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 16:41-21:05 UTC
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; South&East Africa
Increased Risk: Pacific & Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
Current Orbit: 127x145km
Inclination: 51.417°
Period: 87.2 min
Argument of Perigee: 308.8°
Orbits per Day: 16.50
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:54 UTC +/- 01 Hour
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:49 UTC +/- 45 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:44 UTC +/- 02.4 Hours
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:39 +/- 03.1 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 22:16 UTC +/- 09 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 16:41-21:05 UTC
Re-Entry Zone:
Excluded Areas: North America; South&East Africa
Increased Risk: Pacific & Atlantic Ocean; Europe; Asia; Australia; South America
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
January 15, 2012 - 08:00 UTC:
Current Orbit: 130x148km
Inclination: 51.414°
Period: 87.3 min
Argument of Perigee: 3095°
Orbits per Day: 16.48
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:44 UTC +/- 01 Hour
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:49 UTC +/- 45 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:44 UTC +/- 02.4 Hours
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:39 +/- 03.1 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 22:16 UTC +/- 09 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:30 UTC +/- 3 Hours
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
Current Orbit: 130x148km
Inclination: 51.414°
Period: 87.3 min
Argument of Perigee: 3095°
Orbits per Day: 16.48
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:44 UTC +/- 01 Hour
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:49 UTC +/- 45 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 16:44 UTC +/- 02.4 Hours
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 20:39 +/- 03.1 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 22:16 UTC +/- 09 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 18:30 UTC +/- 3 Hours
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via USSTRATCOM)
1 37872U 11065A 12015.38974209 .05034823 12795-4 41823-4 0 3170
2 37872 051.4131 351.8689 0013326 307.2654 052.7779 16.51150762 10918
January 14, 2012 - 20:30 UTC:
Current Orbit: 139x162km
Inclination: 51.416°
Period: 87.6 min
Argument of Perigee: 313.2°
Orbits per Day: 16.45
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:51 UTC +/- 04 Hours
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:22 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 19:29 UTC +/- 06 Hours
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 22:41 +/- 06 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 22:16 UTC +/- 09 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 17:51 UTC +/- 12 Hours
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12014.35819212 .01933464 12512-4 56028-4 0 3050
2 37872 051.4136 357.7814 0018058 314.2874 045.7907 16.43430186 10745
Current Orbit: 139x162km
Inclination: 51.416°
Period: 87.6 min
Argument of Perigee: 313.2°
Orbits per Day: 16.45
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:51 UTC +/- 04 Hours
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:22 UTC +/- 90 Minutes
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 19:29 UTC +/- 06 Hours
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 22:41 +/- 06 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 22:16 UTC +/- 09 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 17:51 UTC +/- 12 Hours
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12014.35819212 .01933464 12512-4 56028-4 0 3050
2 37872 051.4136 357.7814 0018058 314.2874 045.7907 16.43430186 10745
January 14, 2012 - 15:00 UTC:
Current Orbit: 142x166km
Inclination: 51.416°
Period: 87.6 min
Argument of Perigee: 312.7°
Orbits per Day: 16.44
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 17:56 UTC +/- 07 Hours
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:05 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Ted Molczan #1: January 15, 2012 - 22:31 UTC +/- 08 Hours
Ted Molczan #2: January 15, 2012 - 14:13 +/- 06 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 22:16 UTC +/- 09 Hours
Roscosmos: January 15, 2012 - 17:51 UTC +/- 12 Hours
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12014.35819212 .01933464 12512-4 56028-4 0 3050
2 37872 051.4136 357.7814 0018058 314.2874 045.7907 16.43430186 10745
January 14, 2012 - 10:00 UTC:
Current Orbit: 145x169km
Inclination: 51.414°
Period: 87.6 min
Argument of Perigee: 313.8°
Orbits per Day: 16.43
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 16:34 UTC +/- 06 Hours
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:05 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Ted Molczan: January 15, 2012 - 21:36 UTC +/- 10 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 17:52 UTC +/- 14 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12013.87144717 .01576755 12450-4 65173-4 0 3011 2 3787
2 051.4148 000.5559 0020257 313.6808 046.2171 16.41416268 10664
January 13, 2012 - 23:00 UTC:
Current Orbit: 149x175km
Inclination: 51.415°
Period: 87.7 min
Argument of Perigee: 311.1°
Orbits per Day: 16.4
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 16:34 UTC +/- 06 Hours
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:05 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Ted Molczan: January 15, 2012 - 21:36 UTC +/- 10 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 17:52 UTC +/- 14 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12013.44512555 .01528434 12410-4 82095-4 0 2954
2 37872 051.4148 002.9809 0021616 311.0104 048.9034 16.40038260 10599
Current Orbit: 149x175km
Inclination: 51.415°
Period: 87.7 min
Argument of Perigee: 311.1°
Orbits per Day: 16.4
Re-Entry Predictions:
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 16:34 UTC +/- 06 Hours
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:05 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Ted Molczan: January 15, 2012 - 21:36 UTC +/- 10 Hours
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 17:52 UTC +/- 14 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12013.44512555 .01528434 12410-4 82095-4 0 2954
2 37872 051.4148 002.9809 0021616 311.0104 048.9034 16.40038260 10599
January 13, 2012 - 15:30 UTC:
Current Orbit: 150x179km
Inclination: 51.415°
Period: 87.8 min
Argument of Perigee: 311.1°
Orbits per Day: 16.4
Re-Entry Predictions:
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:05 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Ted Molczan: January 15, 2012 - 18:00 UTC +/- 1.2 Days
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 17:57 UTC +/- 20 Hours
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 15:55 UTC +/- 08 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15-16, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12013.44512555 .01528434 12410-4 82095-4 0 2954
2 37872 051.4148 002.9809 0021616 311.0104 048.9034 16.40038260 10599
Current Orbit: 150x179km
Inclination: 51.415°
Period: 87.8 min
Argument of Perigee: 311.1°
Orbits per Day: 16.4
Re-Entry Predictions:
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 17:05 UTC +/- 03 Hours
Ted Molczan: January 15, 2012 - 18:00 UTC +/- 1.2 Days
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 17:57 UTC +/- 20 Hours
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 15:55 UTC +/- 08 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15-16, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12013.44512555 .01528434 12410-4 82095-4 0 2954
2 37872 051.4148 002.9809 0021616 311.0104 048.9034 16.40038260 10599
January 12, 2012:
Current Orbit: 157x189km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 87.9 min
Argument of Perigee: 309.12°
Re-Entry Predictions:
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 12:00 UTC +/- 3 Hours
Ted Molczan: January 15, 2012 - 18:00 UTC +/- 1.2 Days
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 17:57 UTC +/- 20 Hours
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 15:30 UTC +/- 14 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15-16, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12012.40836046 .01824309 12337-4 15962-3 0 2814
2 37872 051.4156 008.8571 0024299 309.1298 050.7596 16.37237966 10427
Current Orbit: 157x189km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 87.9 min
Argument of Perigee: 309.12°
Re-Entry Predictions:
Harro Zimmer: January 15, 2012 - 12:00 UTC +/- 3 Hours
Ted Molczan: January 15, 2012 - 18:00 UTC +/- 1.2 Days
Aerospace Corp.: January 15, 2012 - 17:57 UTC +/- 20 Hours
Spaceflight101: January 15, 2012 - 15:30 UTC +/- 14 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15-16, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12012.40836046 .01824309 12337-4 15962-3 0 2814
2 37872 051.4156 008.8571 0024299 309.1298 050.7596 16.37237966 10427
January 11, 2012:
Current Orbit: 162x196km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.1 min
Argument of Perigee: 308.66°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15 - 15:30 UTC +/- 16 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15-16, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
***Live Re-Entry Blog will become available on Friday ***
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12011.36999971 .00891078 12249-4 10160-3 0 2672
2 37872 051.4152 014.7189 0026031 306.6567 053.2223 16.34832780 10259
Current Orbit: 162x196km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.1 min
Argument of Perigee: 308.66°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15 - 15:30 UTC +/- 16 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 15-16, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
***Live Re-Entry Blog will become available on Friday ***
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12011.36999971 .00891078 12249-4 10160-3 0 2672
2 37872 051.4152 014.7189 0026031 306.6567 053.2223 16.34832780 10259
January 10, 2012:
Current Orbit: 168x207km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.3 min
Argument of Perigee: 299.99°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15 - 14:00 UTC +/- 18 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 10-21, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
***Live Re-Entry Blog will become available on Friday ***
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12009.71815112 .00752877 12162-4 11361-3 0 2572
2 37872 051.4162 024.0113 0029567 299.9955 059.8127 16.31945370 9983
Current Orbit: 168x207km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.3 min
Argument of Perigee: 299.99°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15 - 14:00 UTC +/- 18 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 10-21, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
***Live Re-Entry Blog will become available on Friday ***
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12009.71815112 .00752877 12162-4 11361-3 0 2572
2 37872 051.4162 024.0113 0029567 299.9955 059.8127 16.31945370 9983
Phobos-Grunt related Objects
|
Object: 2011-065G
Separation Date: Nov 27-29 Size: Small Orbital Decay: November 29 *****DECAYED*****
|
Object: 2011-065H
Separation Date: Nov 30 Size: Small Orbital Decay: December 2 *****DECAYED*****
|
January 9, 2012:
Current Orbit: 169x208km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.3 min
Argument of Perigee: 298.42°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15 - 14:00 UTC +/- 18 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 10-21, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
***Live Re-Entry Blog will become available on Friday ***
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12009.35069506 .00687080 12144-4 11002-3 0 2553
2 37872 051.4164 026.0727 0029911 298.4164 061.3888 16.31355567 9926
Current Orbit: 169x208km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.3 min
Argument of Perigee: 298.42°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15 - 14:00 UTC +/- 18 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 10-21, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
***Live Re-Entry Blog will become available on Friday ***
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12009.35069506 .00687080 12144-4 11002-3 0 2553
2 37872 051.4164 026.0727 0029911 298.4164 061.3888 16.31355567 9926
January 6, 2012:
Current Orbit: 176x221km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.5 min
Argument of Perigee: 286.67°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15 - 21:00 UTC +/- 18 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 10-21, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12006.46833551 .00494714 12032-4 10997-3 0 2357
2 37872 051.4209 042.1947 0034620 286.6681 073.0661 16.27657356 9458
Current Orbit: 176x221km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.5 min
Argument of Perigee: 286.67°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15 - 21:00 UTC +/- 18 Hours
Official Russian Prediction: January 10-21, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12006.46833551 .00494714 12032-4 10997-3 0 2357
2 37872 051.4209 042.1947 0034620 286.6681 073.0661 16.27657356 9458
January 2, 2012:
Current Orbit: 235x183km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.7 min
Argument of Perigee: 268.21°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15/16, 2012 +/- 2 Days
Official Russian Prediction: January 6-19, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12002.34985820 .00385519 11916-4 11789-3 0 2168
2 37872 051.4224 065.1067 0039672 268.2094 091.4383 16.23756885 8782
Current Orbit: 235x183km
Inclination: 51.422°
Period: 88.7 min
Argument of Perigee: 268.21°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 15/16, 2012 +/- 2 Days
Official Russian Prediction: January 6-19, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Update Frequency will increase as Re-Entry approaches
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 12002.34985820 .00385519 11916-4 11789-3 0 2168
2 37872 051.4224 065.1067 0039672 268.2094 091.4383 16.23756885 8782
December 27, 2011:
Current Orbit: 251x190km
Inclination: 51.423°
Period: 88.9 min
Argument of Perigee: 241.1584°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 13, 2012 +/- 5 Days
Official Russian Prediction: January 6-19, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 11361.43379780 .00314947 11795-4 13169-3 0 1814
2 37872 051.4213 097.8251 0046240 241.1584 118.4786 16.19485633 7826
Current Orbit: 251x190km
Inclination: 51.423°
Period: 88.9 min
Argument of Perigee: 241.1584°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 13, 2012 +/- 5 Days
Official Russian Prediction: January 6-19, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 11361.43379780 .00314947 11795-4 13169-3 0 1814
2 37872 051.4213 097.8251 0046240 241.1584 118.4786 16.19485633 7826
December 19, 2011:
Current Orbit: 270x198km
Inclination: 51.423°
Period: 89.2 min
Argument of Perigee: 204.42°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 12, 2012 +/- 5 Days
Official Russian Prediction: January 6-19, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
Current Orbit: 270x198km
Inclination: 51.423°
Period: 89.2 min
Argument of Perigee: 204.42°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 12, 2012 +/- 5 Days
Official Russian Prediction: January 6-19, 2012
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
December 13, 2011:
Current Orbit: 283x201km
Inclination: 51.423°
Period: 89.3 min
Argument of Perigee: 178.24°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 11, 2012 +/- 5 Days
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 11347.02020130 .00260332 11619-4 17557-3 0 1239
2 37872 051.4230 176.8360 0061603 178.2392 181.8841 16.11718658 5496
Current Orbit: 283x201km
Inclination: 51.423°
Period: 89.3 min
Argument of Perigee: 178.24°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 11, 2012 +/- 5 Days
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 11347.02020130 .00260332 11619-4 17557-3 0 1239
2 37872 051.4230 176.8360 0061603 178.2392 181.8841 16.11718658 5496
December 9, 2011:
Current Orbit: 294x204km
Inclination: 51.4°
Period: 89.6 min
Argument of Perigee: 161.8°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 9, 2012 +/- 6 Days
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 11343.11164721 .00231319 11582-4 17525-3 0 1114
2 37872 051.4240 198.1142 0065642 161.8137 198.5309 16.09686771 4865
Current Orbit: 294x204km
Inclination: 51.4°
Period: 89.6 min
Argument of Perigee: 161.8°
Re-Entry Prediction: January 9, 2012 +/- 6 Days
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 11343.11164721 .00231319 11582-4 17525-3 0 1114
2 37872 051.4240 198.1142 0065642 161.8137 198.5309 16.09686771 4865
December 6, 2011:
Current Orbit: 299x206km
Inclination: 51.4°
Period: 89.6 min
Argument of Perigee: 145.4°
Re-Entry Prediction: Early January
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 11339.13629769 .00218231 11551-4 18180-3 0 941
2 37872 051.4257 219.6966 0069742 145.3935 215.1676 16.07876834 4226
Current Orbit: 299x206km
Inclination: 51.4°
Period: 89.6 min
Argument of Perigee: 145.4°
Re-Entry Prediction: Early January
Estimated Re-Entry Zone: No Prediction
Tracking TLE (via Heavens-Above.com):
1 37872U 11065A 11339.13629769 .00218231 11551-4 18180-3 0 941
2 37872 051.4257 219.6966 0069742 145.3935 215.1676 16.07876834 4226
